Five days before the recent snowstorm rocked the Mid-Atlantic region, the ECMWF weather model had forecast more than 30 inches for portions of Delaware, coastal Maryland, and southern New Jersey. The model had overestimated snowfall by up to a factor of three.
My criticism of the model will likely not anger many in the political arena. Why not? Because, as we are often told, weather is not climate. Weather is very difficult to forecast because it is highly variable, and weather models can and often do make bad forecastsparticularly for long-range predictionsbecause model errors grow over time. By contrast, apparently, climate is very easy to forecast, and thus the dire prognostications made by climate models cannot be questioned. (Never mind those dates activists often set for climate tipping points pass without event.)
Jordan Peterson has just been “schooled” on this difference. As the Guardian noted, Peterson told Joe Rogan that the climate was too complex to be modelled accurately. So, leading climate scientists lined up to ridicule and criticize Peterson, who, it was dutifully noted, is not a climate scientist but a controversial Canadian psychologist.
Peterson, the critics claimed, showed that he was stunningly ignorant when he argued that climate was a complex problem and that models cannot possibly include every variable that affects it. One of these leading climate scientists, Dr. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the University of New South Wales in Canberra, Australia, was quoted as stating that while weather forecasts become less accurate over time, this was a different process to climate modelling.
So, climate models become more accurate as their time horizons increase? Does that make any sense?
If you dont understand this, it is because you dont understand the purpose of climate modeling. Climate models have virtually nothing to do with the science; but they have everything to do with perception. Climate activists, using the models for divination, assert that our future will be plagued by increasing droughts, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and every other meteorological disaster. These models and their output cannot be questioned, and if you dare suggest that the climate is extremely complex or that our understanding of it is incomplete, you are a climate denieror worse.
The fact is that Peterson was relaying truthful information raised …….